최근 고객분들과의 만남을 가질때 혹은 연말 술자리 모임에 나가면 가장 많이 듣는 질문이 "내년에 집값 떨어지죠?" 혹은 "지금 집사면 안되죠?" 인 것 같습니다. 부동산 가격에 영향을 주는 큰 요인들 중 하나는 바로 이자율인데요, 몇일전 이자율이 오르게 되면 캐나다 집값은 최대 15% 하락한다는 전망이 나오기도 했습니다. 캐나다의 이자율은 미국의 상황 변동에도 많은 영향을 받게 되는데, 지속적인 유가 하락에도 불구하고 12월 3일자 Bank of Canada에서 발표한 바로는 2015년에도 올해와 같은 1%를 유지할 것이라고 예상하고 있습니다. 이자율만 놓고 보았을때는, 2015에는 적어도 안정화된 부동산 시장을 기대할 수 있다는 것인데요, 그렇다면 2014년 캘거리 부동산 시장의 트렌드를 통해서 2015년을 예상할 수 있는지 다음 그래프를 통해 설명드리겠습니다.
ADOM은 average days on the market의 줄임말입니다. 시장에 매물로 나와있는 평균 일수를 뜻하는 것인데요, 이것이 짧을 수록 seller's market에 (집을 파는쪽이 더 유리한 - 적은 매물, 더 빨리, 비싼 가격에 판매가 가능하다) 가깝다고 보시면 됩니다. 반면에 판매 가격은 꾸준한 상승세를 보이고 있습니다.
위 그래프는 지난 10년간 판매된 주택가격의 중간 값입니다. 2008년을 기점으로 약간 주춤한 이후 꾸준한 상승세를 보이고 있습니다.
리스팅된 가격과 실제 판매 가격의 비율을 나타낸 그래프 입니다. 매 겨울에 주춤했다가 봄이 가까워지면 상승하는 것을 보실 수 있습니다. 2009년에는 96-97%인 것이 2014년에는 98-99%에 가까워 졌습니다. 판매자가 원하는 가격에 가깝게 팔 수 있었다는 것은 그만큼 캘거리 부동산 시장이 인기가 많았다는 것을 증명하는 것이라고 봅니다.
Sold Price per sqft도 역시나 꾸준히 올랐습니다. 2009년에는 $275이 채 못되던 것이 2014년 $350에 가까워 졌습니다.
캘거리에 살고 계신다면 국제 유가 뉴스에 많은 관심이 가지고 계실 것이라고 생각됩니다. 전에는 국제 유가가 $100 이상이어야 사업성이 있다고 판단되던 오일 샌드가 기술의 발전 그리고 이미 구축된 생산 시설 등의 요인으로 현재는 $60-70선에도 사업성이 있다고 논의가 되는 실정입니다. 최근 석유수출국기구(OPEC)와 미국 간의 에너지 전쟁에 불이 붙으며 국제유가는 50달러 선까지 하락했습니다. 하지만 이는 미국의 셰일혁명에 따른 시장 점유율 확보를 위한 것이어서 캐나다의 오일샌드 사업은 당분간 지속될 전망입니다. 오히려 생산량 자체는 2010년 캐나다에서 하루 생산되는 오일샌드는 160만 배럴이었는데 해마다 8%씩 성장하고 있어 2017년에는 270만 배럴로 늘어날 것으로 관측된다고 합니다.
캘거리라는 도시가 가진 특수성, 캐나다 전역에서 끊임없이 유입되는 인구와 높은 취업률, 그리고 많은 분들이 걱정하시는 오일 컴퍼니들의 기반 확립 및 안정화로 인해 2015년 캘거리 부동산 시장은 안정된 시장을 지속적으로 이어가게 될 것이라고 조심스럽게 예측해 봅니다. 시장에 영향을 주는 요인는 너무나도 많습니다. 현재로서는 어떤 가격대의 부동산인지, 어떤 타입의 부동산인지, 어떤 커뮤니티인지 등이 조금더 직접적인 요인이라고 보여집니다. 2015년, 어떠한 일들이 생길지 또 그것들이 어떠한 변화를 가져다줄지 눈과 귀를 활짝 열고 빠르고 정확한 부동산 소식을 전하겠습니다. 새해 복 많이 받으세요!
- 이태주 드림
#2 Calgary, #4 Edmonton, #8 Okotoks, #10 Red Deer. We will have to see if this continues to be what they project next year over declining oil prices nowadays. Please check back later as I closely monitor all the news about Calgary and Alberta real estate.
Wednesday, 01 October 2014 15:44
This is where Western Investor believes real estate investors have the best chance to make the most money over the next two years
By Frank O’Brien
Welcome to Western Investor’s second pick of the top towns and cities in Western Canada where, in our opinion, real estate investors in both the commercial and residential sector have the best chance to profit. We compile this list every two years and our outlook is based on a two-year horizon, though many of these top markets should also perform long-term.
No. 1: Richmond
Richmond catapults to the top of the list due to its underlying economy and startling demographics. In many ways, the city represents the future for Metro Vancouver.
Richmond is North America's most Asian city – 50 per cent of residents identify themselves as Chinese, and the influence has created the most diverse and unique – and potentially deep - real estate market in the West.
It is in Richmond where retail real estate space in Asian-flavoured shopping centres sells for more than $1,000 per square foot, the highest in Western Canada.
It is where a 4.9-acre residential site on No. 3 Road, the city’s main thoroughfare, recently sold for $69 million. [Yes, that pencils to nearly $14 million per acre.] Richmond is home to the largest industrial buildings in B.C. and where Canada Post has just opened a 700,000-square-foot processing facility.
Richmond is where U.K.-based retail giant McArthurGlen is building a 240,000-square-foot outlet mall, the first in the province. Joan Jove, director of development for McArhurGlen’s first Canadian project explained why Richmond was chosen over, say, Toronto. “There is a strong Asian demographic [which he said are brand conscious] a lack of outlet malls and a strong tourist industry.”
McArthurGlen’s new mall is being built next to a Canada Line transit station, just two stops away from North America’s Number 1 ranked airport, Vancouver International which itself generates nearly $12 billion a year in economic activity.
Richmond’s population is now over 200,000 residents and expected to grow by 40 per cent in less than 30 years.
And Richmond is where the average detached house price has soared 38 per cent in the past five years, to just shy of $1 million.
No. 2: Calgary
Last year Calgary had more new office construction than Toronto and its residential real estate market is considered to have the strongest upside in the country. A caution on oil prices – now at their lowest level in two years – is all that kept Alberta’s biggest city out of our No. 1 real estate ranking for 2014.
That said, Calgary remains an impressive real estate play. Nearly 3,000 people are moving into the city every month – the 2014 influx is the highest on record – and the rental vacancy rate is a tight 1.4 per cent. There are no rent controls – and apparently no end to bold real estate speculation.
In suburban Calgary, Qualico Communities is building the instant community of Harmony, with 3,500 homes on a 1,700-acre site with a 135-acre lake, a 138-acre commercial campus and a 72-hole golf course, the largest in southern Alberta.
Downtown, Vancouver-based Concord Pacific has launched a high-end residential development on the banks of the Bow River with 200 residential units at record-breaking – the penthouse is $13 million - prices.
Calgary’s commercial investment market is on track to top $1.2 billion this year. Land prices are startling. This year a 12-acre retail site sold for $70 million and a high-density, one-acre residential site on 11 Avenue SW sold for a $30 million. House prices are up 9 per cent from last year and Royal Bank echoes other analysts is forecasting continued price acceleration across the real estate spectrum.
No. 3: Surrey
Surrey, B.C.’s fastest-growing and second-largest city, remains in our top five. The city has seen seven consecutive years of record-breaking construction, with value now exceeding $8 billion.
Much of the spending has been in public projects, including a new city hall, a new library, the half-a-billon dollar expansion of the Surrey Memorial Hospital and expansion of Simon Fraser University and the RCMP headquarters.
While the industrial market remains strong, Surrey has slipped in our real estate ranking this year due to a glut in the office and multi-family markets, both of which we believe will cool real estate returns over the next year.
Surrey’s office vacancy rate has soared to 23.2 per cent as of mid-year, the highest level in Metro Vancouver, and there is still 164,000 square feet of new office space to be delivered by 2015. Returns on office property, therefore, are expected to be low.
Ditto for the condominium and townhouse sectors, which account for half of Surrey housing’s market. Condominium sales were down 12 per cent in August compared to a year earlier, with townhouse sales off 7.7 per cent, and prices have fallen or flatlined in both markets from 2013. Meanwhile, 1,022 new high-rise condominiums have begun marketing in North Surrey alone in the past year.
Alberta’s capital is in the midst of the largest development cycle in years, marked by the Edmonton Arena District that will include a new hockey arena and the second tallest office building in Western Canada. Building permits through the first half of this year were $3.5 billion, just behind Vancouver.
Posting the highest gross national product of any Canadian city, Edmonton offers a sterling advantage for real estate investors: relatively low prices with strong upside potential.
Edmonton’s median home price, at $368,000, is far below Calgary or Vancouver, and the average price per-suite for a rental apartment building is $122,400, the lowest among Canada’s top-tier cities. The rental vacancy rate is a tight 1.4 per cent.
The industrial market also has potential. Spec developers have had difficulty keeping pace with demand, which now equates to 400,000 square feet being leased up every quarter. Industrial land prices from $350,000 per acre are among the lowest in major Canadian cities.
No.5: Cold Lake
Cold Lake, often called “the second Fort McMurray” because of its proximity - and potential - comparable to Alberta’s oil sands centre has matured into a stand-alone economic powerhouse.
The city is preparing for the annexation of more than 3,000 aces of land in the face of white-hot real estate demand and a soaring population. The unemployment rate is 3.4 per cent, about half the national average.
About 550,000 barrels of oil per day are generated in the region and planners see that doubling over the next 30 years.
We believe the potential for real estate returns over the next year are positive. The average price for a house shot up over $50,000 in 2014 to $276,515 and the rental vacancy rate is near zero; and there is strong demand across the commercial and industrial real estate sectors.
Since we placed Estevan in our real estate rankings two years ago, property values have soared and bigger investors have taken a position in this small city close to the Bakken oil fields. There are generous incentives – up to $10,000 “per door” for eligible rental investments and three-year tax holidays for qualified commercial projects.
Artis Real Estate Investment Trust recently bought Estevan’s major shopping mall for $10.1 million as one indication of the action.
Estevan is one of the largest cities in oil-rich Southeast Saskatchewan, responsible for 40 per cent of provincial oil sales.
It is also the site of the world's largest carbon capture storage facility. While the residential rental vacancy has risen due to a rush of new home building, we believe Estevan will prove a prime investment in the commercial and industrial market over the next two years.
No.7: Fort St. John
The second-largest city in Northern British Columbia, Fort St. John is the centre for the giant Montney Basin natural gas fields and BC Hydro’s proposed $7.9 billion Site C dam, which is nearly on its doorstep.
Shell Canada and the Oil & Gas Commission have opened offices, a new car dealership is complete, a Holiday Express hotel has opened, a second hotel is under construction and the Totem Mall is expanding, as is Walmart.
There is a shortage of serviced land in Fort St. John, meaning that 4.5-acre industrial lands outside of town are selling for an average of more than $760,000. With a projected doubling of the region’s population, Fort St. John offers real estate investment opportunities, especially in retail and rental housing.
Okotoks, just outside of the city of Calgary, is a residential real estate play. The second quarter of 2014 saw a new high for home sales, a 35 per cent increase from the same time last year. There are only 300 serviced residential lots ready for construction at the moment, which is less than half of what was available at this time in 2012. House prices are up 5 per cent since 2013, to $403,500, and we forecast they will ramp higher over the next two years. Okotoks is moving to annex 33 quarter sections – more than 5,000 acres –, which would set the stage for a new power centre in southern Alberta.
The largest city in Saskatchewan is drawing record-levels of in-migration, which has resulted in a strong retail and housing markets. The retail sector has a 10.8 million square feet but only 2.5 per cent is vacant. So far this year, lease-up has hit 166,000 square feet, up from 64,500 square feet of a year ago. According to recent studies, the city needs at least 600,000 square feet of new retail space.
This year, 3,400 new homes will break ground in Saskatoon, up 5.3 per cent from 2013 and this is expected to surpass 7,000 units annually in 2015 and 2016. Still, with an average price of $345,000, Saskatoon has among the lowest housing prices of any major city in Canada. The city offers generous incentives to builders of rental housing, yet the vacancy rate is a fairly right 3.3 per cent.
No. 10 Red Deer
Red Deer is halfway between Calgary and Edmonton and smack in the headlights of real estate investors. The city is forecast to see economic growth of 3.5 per cent this year and next. With an average household income of $94,000 and one of the fastest growing populations in Alberta, the city is a magnet for residential investors, but the industrial sector also holds potential. The industrial vacancy rate is a tight 3.6 per cent and space is leasing at a pace of nearly 30,000 square feet per month.
OUR TOP TEN TOWNS
5 Cold Lake
7 Fort St. John
10 Red Deer
by CREB on December 10, 2014
by CREB on December 01, 2014
Calgary’s residential resale housing market posted relatively strong November activity reaching 1,782 units, a three per cent increase over the previous year, and nearly 13 per cent above long term averages.
"Relative to other major centres, economic growth in Calgary remains one of the strongest in the country," said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie. "Employment opportunities and relatively higher wages have encouraged people to move here, supporting the demand growth in our housing sector."
Meanwhile, new listings growth continues to outpace the gains in sales, supporting a 22 per cent year-over-year rise in November inventories to 3,849 units. While inventories have recorded significant gains, they remain below long-term averages for the month.
"Over the past year, inventories have been low in the city, limiting some of the choice for consumers," said CREB® president Bill Kirk. "While availability in specific segments and price ranges vary, on the whole, the recent rise in inventories will be welcome news for many buyers."
As in previous months, November saw double-digit growth in year-to-date sales for all property types. However, the strongest gains were in the condominium apartment and townhouse sectors with a combined growth of over 19 per cent. When comparing year-to-date sales figures, both condominium sectors are currently at record levels.
"Overall, buyers looking for product under $400,000 will find more options in the condominium sector because supply levels have improved," said Kirk. "In the single-family sector, however, declining supply in that same price range has created much tighter market conditions in that segment."
Single-family sales totaled 1,181 units in November, a one per cent year-over-year decline. Meanwhile, year-to-date activity totaled 16,481 units, a 6.2 per cent increase over the previous year. New listings, in comparison, increased 5.9 per cent to 23,207 units over the same time frame.
November also showed easing growth in single-family unadjusted benchmark prices, totaling $511,300 in November—an 8.7 per cent increase over the previous year. While year-over-year price gains remain strong, price growth has slowed from the double-digit rates posted earlier in the year.
Meanwhile, unadjusted benchmark prices for condominium apartments and townhouses totaled a respective $300,700 and $338,600. Like the single-family sector, both condominium sectors have seen price growth ease from double-digit levels. However, it was only this past June and September that saw condominium apartment and townhouse prices recover from previous highs.
"Tight market conditions earlier in the year caused significant aggregate price gains," said Lurie. "It also resulted in a rise in new listings, supporting gains in inventory levels, and a push towards more balanced levels. This has helped ease the upward growth pressure on prices.
"While Calgary’s price gains have garnered a significant amount of national attention, several indicators are pointing toward more stable conditions, easing risk associated with an overheating market."